According to the latest data from the General Statistics Office (GSO), the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in January recorded a breakthrough growth of 21.5% year-on-year. In essence, this exceptional surge is attributed to the 2025 Lunar New Year holiday falling at the end of January, which caused an earlier halt in industrial activities. Consequently, when compared to the same period last year, January 2026 shows superior growth, though the IIP edged down by 0.2% compared to December 2025.
Total retail sales and consumer service revenue rose by 9.3% year-on-year. Excluding price factors, the real growth reached 6.3%, indicating that consumer sentiment remains stable and comparable to pre-pandemic levels. However, the "Tet effect" should not be overlooked, as this year's late Lunar New Year shifted shopping demand into January.
In terms of macro management, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January increased slightly by 0.05% month-on-month and 2.53% year-on-year. A notable point is the core inflation, which reached 3.19%, significantly higher than the headline CPI. This divergence reflects price pressures shifting from volatile items like food and energy to services and essential consumer goods.
One of the most surprising variables in the first month was the trade balance. After a prolonged period of trade surplus, Vietnam recorded an estimated trade deficit of $1.78 billion in January. The primary cause was a 49.2% surge in imports, far outpacing the 29.7% export growth.
However, since Vietnam's import structure consists mainly of machinery and raw materials, this likely reflects inventory preparation by enterprises, particularly FDI firms. The massive import influx in the first month typically serves as a precursor to major production plans and export orders expected in the coming quarters.
Regarding Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), the landscape shows a clear polarization. Implemented FDI reached $1.68 billion, up 11.3%, indicating steady disbursement of existing projects. Conversely, newly registered FDI plunged 40.6% year-on-year to $2.58 billion. Nevertheless, a closer look reveals that the decline stemmed mostly from adjusted capital (expansion of existing projects), while new project registration continued to grow. Some observers view this as a shift toward quality over quantity. Personally, I prefer to wait and see how it unfolds.
State budget revenue in January reached an impressive 370.7 trillion VND, while expenditure stood at 163 trillion VND. This record surplus of 207.7 trillion VND at the start of the year not only reflects efficient tax collection but also provides abundant financial resources for the Government to accelerate public investment and stimulate economic growth throughout the remainder of 2026.