Macro News

Domestic

• The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has officially debunked rumors regarding the withdrawal of small-denomination banknotes (from 1,000 VND to 5,000 VND), asserting that such claims are entirely groundless and lack any legal basis.
• To maintain macroeconomic stability and foster sustainable growth, the SBV has prioritized an average inflation control target of approximately 4.5% for 2026.
• The State Securities Commission (SSC) Inspectorate has mandated MB to recall 6 out of 11 outstanding bond tranches. The bank is required to refund principal and interest to investors due to the misappropriation of mobilized funds.
• Mr. Ngo Hoang Ha, Deputy CEO of Finance at TCBS, revealed that TCEX—a member of the TCBS ecosystem—submitted its application for a digital asset exchange license prior to January 15, 2026.
• Dr. Do Thi Loan, former Vice President of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association, has submitted a formal proposal to the City People's Committee. The petition requests that developers be granted flexibility in fulfilling social housing obligations—tailored to specific project planning—rather than being strictly mandated to allocate 20% of land within commercial projects.

International

• The United States is bracing for one of the most expansive winter storms in years, forecasted to impact approximately 205 million people starting this weekend.
• Tehran has warned that any strike will be viewed as "total war against us," as a U.S. naval fleet continues its deployment toward the Middle East.
• U.S. Media reports suggest the administration is considering a full withdrawal of troops from Syria, potentially ending over a decade of military presence in the region.

Interest Rates

During the past week, VND overnight interest rates exhibited abnormal movements, slightly decreasing in the early sessions from 3.3% at the start of the week to 2.83% on Thursday, before surging back to 4.8% in the final session of the week. Generally, short-term interest rates (under 1 month) continued to be maintained at low levels—with negative or low swap gaps against the USD—due to low demand for short-term liquidity following the race for capital at the end of last year.

Meanwhile, longer tenors are being maintained at approximately 7%, indicating that long-term liquidity remains strained. The SBV’s Open Market Operations (OMO) continued to stay at low levels during the third week of 2026. Low bidding volumes led to a continued decline in outstanding OMO balances in the market to over 40 trillion VND.

In the context of liquidity being withdrawn, the Citad balance of the banking system at the SBV fell sharply to a multi-month low of only 290 trillion VND.

Exchange Rates

The USDVND exchange rate on the interbank market rose slightly mid-week before declining. However, the volatility range was quite narrow, at only about 30 pips, with the interbank rate closing at 26,240 VND. The free-market USD and USDT rates experienced similar fluctuations, closing the week at 26,610 VND and 26,620 VND, respectively.

The USD is recording its strongest weekly decline since June of last year, with the Dollar Index (DXY) retreating to 97.60. This weakness is primarily due to geopolitical tensions and the widespread "Sell America" sentiment. News regarding President Trump’s Greenland agreement and the withdrawal of tariff threats against Europe placed pressure on the greenback.

Additionally, the New York Fed's execution of rate checks was considered an adverse signal for the USD's value against its peers. Investors are currently showing concern over foreign policy uncertainties and the impact of previously implemented tariff measures.

Major Currencies

The Yen is undergoing a period of extreme volatility, hitting its lowest level in 18 months (approximately 159.2 JPY/USD). This decline stems from concerns over Japan's financial situation under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who called for early elections and promised tax cuts. Notably, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducted a rate check on the USD/JPY pair at midday Friday, raising suspicions of authorities performing a "rate check"—a precursor to direct intervention—causing the Yen to rally sharply to 155.77. The market is currently very cautious about the possibility of Japan spending billions of Yen to halt the devaluation.

The British Pound just experienced its most positive trading week against the USD since August, reaching 1.362 USD. This upward momentum was driven by better-than-expected economic data: UK retail sales rose 0.4% in December, and the composite PMI hit a 21-month high (53.9 points). Although the labor market shows signs of weakness and inflationary pressures persist, the rapid business recovery has bolstered investor confidence. Currently, the Bank of England (BoE) is forecast to hold interest rates steady in its February meeting, while the market bets on a potential rate cut in June.

The Euro recorded a weekly gain of over 1%, reaching 1.181 USD at the close of trading. Despite political instability in France, where Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s government faces confidence votes regarding the 2026 budget, the common currency maintained its momentum thanks to broad USD weakness. The Euro's 0.5% gain on Friday reflects investor optimism in the Eurozone as global geopolitical risks shift. However, the Euro's volatility against the Pound (dropping to 86.73 pence) shows that its strength still depends heavily on the distinct economic context of each member nation.

The CNY approached its highest level in nearly 32 months against the USD after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the central parity rate at 6.9929—surpassing the key psychological threshold of 7 for the first time since 2023. The currency's strength was supported by a record trade surplus and strong capital inflows (reaching 100.1 billion USD in December). Foreign currency conversion demand from exporters for pre-Lunar New Year bonuses also boosted the CNY’s value. Although the PBOC affirmed it would maintain exchange rate flexibility and stands ready to prevent "overshooting" risks, experts believe regulators are currently quite comfortable with this appreciation.

Commodities

Precious Metals

The precious metals group is witnessing an unprecedented massive influx of safe-haven capital, with Silver being the brightest star as it officially broke the psychological $100/ounce mark. Spot silver prices surged 5% to $100.94, a new all-time high, bringing the total gain over the past year to more than 200%. The upward momentum comes from the synergy of safe-haven investment demand, tariff concerns, and a severe shortage of physical supply in the London market alongside refining challenges.

Meanwhile, Gold is also approaching the $5,000 mark, with spot prices hitting a record $4,988.17 before closing around $4,982.57 (up 8.4% from the previous week). Tensions between the US and NATO over the Greenland issue, along with doubts about the Fed's independence and the wave of de-dollarization by central banks, are providing a solid floor for Gold.

Notably, Platinum also established a new peak at $2,771.10 (up 4.4%) as investors view it as a cheaper alternative to Gold, amid a projected structural market deficit widening to 1.2 million ounces this year.

Crude Oil

The crude oil market had a volatile trading session and ended the week at $61.07/barrel, up 2.74%. The main driver was U.S. President Donald Trump increasing pressure on Iran through new sanctions targeting 9 vessels and 8 oil shipping companies, while a U.S. naval fleet including aircraft carriers and destroyers moves toward the Middle East, sparking fears of direct military conflict. Besides geopolitics, global oil supply is tightening significantly due to an incident in Kazakhstan.

The massive Tengiz oil field has yet to resume operations after a fire earlier this week. JP Morgan forecasts Kazakhstan's production in January will average only 1 to 1.1 million barrels per day, a sharp decline from the usual 1.8 million. These concerns completely overshadowed the cooling signals from the previous Greenland agreement, helping both benchmark oils record weekly gains of over 2.5%.

Natural Gas

U.S. natural gas prices are undergoing a week of frantic gains, with the weekly closing price surging by 68%. The core cause is extreme weather forecasts, warning of an Arctic cold blast covering the U.S. until February 6th, pushing the Heating Degree Days index to 581, far exceeding the normal level of 395. This skyrocketing heating demand is putting the U.S. power grid at high risk, especially while handling the massive electricity demand from data centers.

On the supply side, the freezing cold is causing "freeze-offs," paralyzing equipment and pipelines, reducing production to 108.4 bcfd in January. EIA data showed energy companies withdrew 120 billion cubic feet (bcf) from storage, higher than analysts' forecast of 106 bcf. With gas flows to LNG export plants remaining at a record high of 18.6 bcfd, pressure on domestic inventories is becoming severe, pushing February contract prices to $5.275/mmBtu.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in a challenging recovery phase as it repeatedly encounters strong resistance at $98,400—the average cost basis of short-term holders. The market is stuck in a range from $81,100 to $98,400, reflecting a fragile sentiment similar to the market structure of early 2022. Selling pressure primarily comes from investors who bought at high levels (above $110,000) looking to exit as prices recover to break-even points. Although spot flows on exchanges like Binance have begun shifting to the buy side and selling pressure from Coinbase has slowed, a lack of liquidity and institutional buying momentum continues to limit growth. To break out of the $100,000 threshold, BTC needs a stronger and more sustained increase in demand to absorb all the overhead supply.

Ethereum is currently facing a fierce tug-of-war between "whale" buying power and dumping pressure from large institutions. While individual wallet addresses accumulate hundreds of millions of USD in ETH, the financial institution BlackRock caused a stir by moving 82,813 ETH (approximately $247.1 million) to Coinbase in preparation for sale. This pressure is further compounded by net outflows of over $685 million from U.S. ETFs over the past week. Combined with risk-aversion sentiment from the geopolitical backdrop and a wave of leveraged position liquidations, ETH is under significant downward price pressure. Despite legal progress and the asset tokenization sector offering long-term prospects, in the short term, ETH's recovery remains constrained by the massive supply volume from investment funds.